Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues

How does Chinese overseas development finance compare with World Bank and OECD bilateral finance once money reaches the ground? Drawing on her new book, Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa (2026), Keyi Tang analyzes geocoded projects financed by China, the World Bank, and OECD bilateral donors across forty-eight African countries (2000–2021), linking them to original subnational election data for 519 regions and 175 interviews in Washington, Beijing, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia. Tang also hand-collected administrative-level data on all foreign-financed roads in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia from ministries of finance and infrastructure over the past two decades, tracking precisely where projects are implemented. The central finding is that where development finance lands—regardless of the financier—often reflects political survival strategies rather than development need. The talk uses this evidence to reframe debates about “China versus the West,” showing how electoral incentives in recipient countries shape allocation outcomes and what this implies for policy discussions on transparency, accountability, and the future of development cooperation.