Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues

When scholars and policymakers consider how technological advances affect the rise and fall of great powers, they draw on theories that center the moment of innovation - the eureka moment that sparks astonishing technological feats. In his new book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition (2024), Jeffrey Ding offers a different explanation of how technological revolutions affect competition among great powers. Rather than focusing on which state first introduced major innovations, he investigates the ability of states to successfully adapt and spread these technologies across their economies. Drawing on historical case studies of past industrial revolutions as well as statistical analysis, Ding demonstrates how institutional adaptations oriented around diffusing technology play a crucial role in shaping global competition. In this discussion he will consider how his findings bear directly on current concerns about how emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) could influence the U.S.-China power balance.