Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues

One of the few points of consensus across the aisle in Washington, DC, is that strategic competition with China is the new Cold War. From this, we know that any hope of the complete reset of relations is futile–instead, we have to work within this context. Despite the harsh calls from Beijing and Washington, DC, the U.S.-China Student Dialogue’s Peace and Security group found that the U.S.-China relationship is not defined by an inevitable clash, but by a dynamic interplay of competition and pragmatic cooperation in which the issues of ideology, economy, and climate will dominate the transpacific relationship in the next four years. At this fork in the road, our most potent finding has been that American and Chinese leadership is paramount to the fate of U.S.-China relations.

A central theme from our talks was the impact of leadership styles on diplomatic maneuvering. From the Georgetown University side, U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictability seems to contrast Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calculated long-term worldview; however, both operate from a nationalist rationale with domestic legitimacy as a focus and global stability in the rearview mirror. From the Peking University side, in contrast, Trump’s “America First” doctrine is predictable, even if his messages of tariff stiff arming and economic expansion are incompatible. What is agreeable is that Trump is a transactional man–which naturally creates volatility but also could enhance opportunities for negotiation.

These leaders are also fundamentally human actors, and thus, we also recognize the role of personalities. It is unclear how Trump 2.0’s boldness and unconventionality will mix with Xi’s ambition and historical burden. We face a new Trump–one shaken by the law, assassination attempts, and retribution. Students on both sides of the Pacific agree that Trump’s first administration is only tangentially related to his new one.

Questions of structural change further spotlight the importance of leadership. Economic entanglement remains a stabilizing force, ensuring that–despite trade wars and the protectionist surges–bilateral economic ties persist. Moreover, the shifting geopolitical landscape challenges the dominance of post-WWII structures like the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund as China seeks to reshape global governance while the United States rejects the very institutions it once championed. The erosion of multilateralism raised questions in my group about the potential of an orderless world and a vacuum of leadership that demands a direction.

Climate change emerges as a crucial test of leadership in this bilateral relationship. Historically, the United States and China have managed to maintain some level of environmental cooperation despite political tensions. However, the expiration of the U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement and Trump’s withdrawal from climate commitments worry both the Georgetown and Peking students. In the absence of American leadership, China has an opportunity to determine the trajectory of global climate governance by helping proliferate renewable energy investments and implement green technology initiatives.

However, leadership in the U.S.-China relationship is not limited to heads of state. By experiencing it ourselves, we felt the strength of student-to-student diplomacy. The first step is a conversation; what seems like a low bar is seemingly impossible to achieve in this competitive environment. These dialogues exist as proof that the U.S.-China relationship is not destined for absolute rupture–there is nothing deterministic about it. U.S. and Chinese leadership throughout all levels of society will shape how these next few pivotal years will play out, and the next generation of leaders will be on the front lines of change.

Ashton Basak (SFS '27) is a student at Georgetown University studying International Political Economy with a certificate in Diplomatic Studies.